TAKEAWAYS Shaping the Future of the Global Supply Chain SNAPSHOT: SUPPLY CHAIN MOOD
In the midst of complex shifts occurring within the global trade sphere, supply chain executives feel torn between optimism and pessimism, shows the fifth annual Trade in Transition research program. Led by Economist Impact and supported by DP World, the survey of more than 3,500 supply chain leaders examines
how firms are adapting to forces shaping global supply chains. Among other findings, the research reveals the top five reasons for both pessimistic and optimistic outlooks—a quick microcosm of the many elements impacting shippers today. These are the most-cited mood factors:
Respondents rank their top two reasons for optimism Top Five Reasons for Optimism
Top Five Reasons for Pessimism Respondents rank their top two reasons for pessimism
41% 34% 24% 23% 20%
33% 29% 25% 21% 18%
New technologies that increase the efficiency and visibility of supply chains
Protracted period of high inflation and interest rates
Increased economic stability and growth
Economic downturn in key markets
Increased attention and support from national governments
Heightened geopolitical uncertainty
Rise of sustainable trade practices
Global warming and extreme weather patterns causing supply chain disruption
New trade arrangements lowering tariff and non-tariff barriers
Cybersecurity breaches
Source: Economist Impact Trade in Transition survey
GLOBALIZATION REMAINS STRONG DESPITE GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS Amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the Trump Administration’s push toward an America First foreign policy stance, globalization still holds steady at record levels, according to a recent report from DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business. The DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, an extension of the DHL Global Connectedness Report , provides a comprehensive analysis of global trade, capital, information, and people flows. International trade remains a vital pillar of the world economy, according to the latest findings. These details, shared in the updated DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, make that case: • In 2023, 21% of the global economic output was traded internationally —just shy of the all-time high of 22%. • Contrary to expectations of regionalization, traded goods are traveling the longest average distance on record (3,088 miles), indicating that globalization remains robust.
• Geopolitically “unaligned” countries, such as India, Vietnam, Brazil, and the UAE, are taking on changing roles. These nations have expanded their share of global trade, serving as economic bridges between geopolitical rivals like the U.S. and China. From 2016 to 2024, trade involving these neutral economies grew from 42% to 47%. • Information flows continue to be the most globalized aspect of international activity, driven by rapid digitization. Migration and travel remain at lower globalization levels. The report also cautions against predictions of a globalization reversal due to potential new U.S. tariffs, emphasizing global trade’s proven resilience through Brexit, the U.S.-China trade war, and the pandemic.
14 Inbound Logistics • February 2025
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