TAKEAWAYS
CAN GLOBAL TRADE ENDURE? Despite the uncertainty surrounding global trade policies since the start of the second Trump Administration, new research from DHL, in cooperation with The New York University Stern School of Business, paints an optimistic picture of global trade’s strength and path forward. The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 highlights how global trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions and predicts this pattern is likely to continue. • Global goods trade is expected to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029, growing faster over the next five years than during the preceding decade. • Even if U.S. trade restrictions are enacted and met with countermeasures, global trade is still projected to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
• India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will lead in trade growth between 2024 and 2029, ranking among the top 30 for both growth rate and absolute trade volume increase. ( See graph below .) India also stands out as the country with the third- largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind China (12%), and the United States (10%). • While direct trade between the United States and China decreased from 3.5% of world trade in 2016 to 2.6% in early 2024, the United States continues to import a significant share of goods from China, indicating ongoing interdependence. • The shift away from trade between geopolitical blocs observed in 2022 and 2023 did not persist into 2024, suggesting a stabilization in global trade alliances.
The report outlines several reasons for optimism about the future of global trade despite a turn toward more restrictive U.S. trade policies: • Most countries continue to pursue trade as a key economic opportunity, and U.S. trade barriers could strengthen ties among other countries. • Trump’s proposed trade measures are often subject to change, delay, or revision to avoid unintended economic consequences such as inflation, the report notes. • The U.S. share of world imports currently stands at 13%, and its share of exports is 9%—enough for U.S. policies to have substantial eects on other countries but not enough to unilaterally determine the future of global trade. The report’s key findings include the following:
16 Inbound Logistics • April 2025
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