TAKEAWAYS Shaping the Future of the Global Supply Chain
Good news from Dun & Bradstreet: Business confidence is improving, finds the Q1 2026 Global Business Optimism Insights survey. According to the report—which consists of five separate indices— businesses are exhibiting higher optimism for export orders, smoother supply operations, and stronger financial planning than in earlier quarters, allowing them to prepare for Q1 2026 with more confidence. This shift is supported by a more positive assessment of the global macroeconomic environment, notes the report. READY FOR A REBOUND?
MASTERING THE RETURNS VALUE CYCLE With the post-holiday returns season currently wrapping up, global logistics leaders are gauging the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of their reverse logistics operations. Drawing on findings from DHL’s 2025 E-Commerce Trends Report , the consensus is that the winners in global commerce are no longer those trying to eliminate returns, but those mastering the value cycle, which is estimated to be an $890 billion U.S. market. The returns segment of the ecommerce supply chain is playing an increasingly critical role as reverse logistics has moved from a back-office cost center to a front-line strategic differentiator. Returns in fashion, for example, are no longer a footnote; in certain sectors, they are the business model. DHL’s report highlights the consumer habit of ordering multiple sizes or colors (known as “bracketing”), noting it is driving average return rates to above 50%. For high-sensitivity categories, such as women’s dresses, return rates can hit almost 90%. This volume also creates what the report calls an “invisible value pool,” an estimated $62.5 billion in potential global revenue that remains untapped annually. This figure represents the lost profit opportunity when returned goods are treated as waste rather than assets. In the United States, the sheer scale of returned merchandise is increasingly prompting a re-evaluation of supply chain resilience at many retailers. Additional findings include: • 92% of global shoppers return up to 30% of their online purchases. • 79% of online shoppers will abandon a purchase if the return policy does not meet their expectations. • Businesses often blame “transit damage,” for high returns rates, but shoppers consistently point to incorrect sizing (54%) and poor product quality (55%) as the real drivers. • Consumers want a hybrid experience for returns—buying online but returning through a dense network of parcel lockers or service points: 55% of shoppers return items via parcel shop dropoff, 52% use parcel locker dropoff, and 38% opt for home or business pickup.
Of particular interest for global supply chains:
Favorable Optimism: The Global Business Optimism Index rose by 3.5% quarter over quarter (q/q) in Q1 2026 after four consecutive quarterly
3.5%
declines. A higher share of respondents reported optimism across parameters, signaling a broad- based upturn in business confidence—anchored by clearer policy paths, steadier financing, and supply chain normalization.
Supply Chain Stability: The Global Business Supply Chain Continuity Index registered a gain of 6.6% q/q for Q1 2026, marking the first
6.6%
meaningful rebound after a challenging 2025, which saw declines for Q1, Q3, and Q4 and only a modest gain for Q2. Emerging economies led with an 8% rise, while advanced economies posted a gain of 6.2%. This optimism reflects early signs of stabilization in freight and energy costs after the commodity price spikes that characterized much of 2025, alongside reduced tariff- related frictions, industrial recovery, and strategic supply chain initiatives across key economies.
14 Inbound Logistics • February 2026
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