THOUGHT Leaders CONTENT PARTNERS
The Pendulum Swings Towards Dedicated Capacity…AGAIN
Q What can I do as a shipper? A Many shippers are not feeling this pinch, yet. However, as these licenses are removed from drivers over the next few years, we can be assured that carrier rates will increase and capacity will tighten. Most importantly, there is nothing in current trend that would suggest the pendulum returns to where it currently is/ was. We either must ship less (not likely as we are consumers) or train more drivers (we closed schools). My advice is to ask your team, or contract firms like Tansect, to review your shipping lanes and volumes to determine what, if any, can be shifted to dedicated capacity. First, you don’t need to be a big company to have dedicated potential. Second, the use of dedicated resources is often less expensive than your current operation...for better service. In fact, at the request of one of our customers we obtained our DOT certification in 2025 to run a private fleet we designed for them. The solution was significantly cheaper and more effective than their current model. Second, any freight that does not fall into a dedicated model but is repeating/consistent should be considered for bid. In my opinion, these activities not only “lock in” a rate…they create relationships between the shipper and carrier that are invaluable.
For as long as I can remember there has been a pendulum that swings between heavy use of the carrier spot market and the use of dedicated/contracted resources. Traditionally, when rates are low, shippers rely heavily on the spot market, and when rates increase or capacity tightens, shippers shift more towards the dedicated or contracted model. However, after 25 years in the industry…this swing feels different. Q How is this swing different? A The law requiring drivers to speak English was adopted in 1937 as a critical safety requirement in the event of an emergency. For many many many years it was not enforced because the need for drivers outweighed the enforcement of the rule, which changed in April 2025 when it was reprioritized. Last year, this action removed an estimated 10,000 drivers, with more coming in 2026. In addition to these immediate removals, the DOT estimates an additional 194,000 non-domiciled drivers will be removed as their current licenses expire. This is on top of an existing estimated shortage of 80,000 drivers. Traditionally, we would replace these losses with newly trained drivers. However, in the last year the DOT has closed 3,000 DOT training programs and put an additional 4,500 on notice/warning (representing nearly half of the 16,000 registered training sites). Combined, this is what makes the swing different. We are increasing the shortage but have cut the driver supply line. As such, experts believe the shortage will soon jump to about 130,000 drivers.
Michael Heisman CEO Tansect, Inc. (Consulting & 3PL) Tansect Transport, Inc. (Dedicated Trucking) mheisman@tansect.com www.tansect.com
18 Inbound Logistics • February 2026
Powered by FlippingBook