TAKEAWAYS
PRESSURE HITS THE ROAD
The U.S. cold storage sector is entering a reset period. After several years of aggressive development, supply has begun to outpace demand, pushing vacancy to a 20-year high even as the market recorded roughly 3.5 million square feet of positive absorption in 2025. At the same time, the development pipeline has dropped to 5.9 million square feet—the lowest level since 2020—signaling a slowdown in new construction. Softer consumer spending and elevated food prices, which rose 3.1% year over year, further weigh on near-term demand and inventory levels. These are the key takeaways from global commercial real estate firm Newmark’s latest report, 2H 2025 U.S. Cold Storage Market Overview , which examines the sector in detail. Beneath the surface, demand is not disappearing, it’s evolving. The report points to structural drivers such as population growth, e-grocery expansion (which posted a 32% year-over-year sales increase in Q4 2025), domestic food production, and pharmaceutical cold chain needs as continuing to support long-term growth. At the same time, occupiers are rethinking strategy in response to rising rents, which have more than doubled since 2020, prompting increased interest in ownership, automation, and operational efficiency. Important cold chain trends outlined in Newmark’s report include: Vacancies in transition: Elevated deliveries have pushed vacancy higher, with modern facilities at 6.1% vacancy and older assets at 7.6%, though a shrinking pipeline points to future balance. Flight to quality accelerating: Demand is increasingly concentrated in newer facilities, while legacy space accounts for roughly 73% of total vacant square footage. Costs reshape decisions: Rapid rent growth is driving more occupiers to explore build-to-own strategies and sale-leasebacks. Demand drivers shift: E-grocery growth, population expansion, and pharmaceutical demand are offsetting weaker near-term food consumption, which is being pressured by inflation and slower spending. New complexities emerging: GLP-1 drug adoption—now used by up to 18% of U.S. adults—could reduce overall food consumption while shifting demand toward protein and fresh food categories, with implications for cold storage mix. Trend Watch: Cold Storage Development Rebalances Cold storage firm growth accelerated to 6.3% annually from 2021-2023, driving capacity expansion. In 2025, firm counts dipped slightly as development pipelines began to moderate. IS THE COLD CHAIN HOT—OR NOT?
Due to impacts from recent severe weather and supply chain volatility, pressure is mounting across the U.S. logistics sector—and fast. A recent report from Tech.co shows the industry absorbing a surge of operational strain, with its Operational Pressure Index hitting a record high of 44 in February 2026. This marks the highest number since April 2025. Major winter storms earlier this year disrupted freight flows, strained labor availability, and created cascading impacts across transportation networks— from delayed shipments to warehouse power outages, notes the report. Not surprisingly, 30% of logistics firms surveyed by Tech.co cite unforeseen events, including severe weather, as the primary driver of increased pressure. In response, logistics companies are shifting their focus inward, prioritizing operational resilience over expansion. Fleet maintenance has emerged as a key strategy, with a growing share of firms investing in preventative upkeep to stabilize day-to-day operations and reduce the risk of further disruption. The report cites these top five vehicle upkeep measures currently being implemented (by popularity among U.S. logistics businesses): 1. Preventative maintenance (70%) 2. Addressing mechanical issues (52%) 3. Upgrading/replacing components (51%) 4. Ensuring safety compliance (49%) 5. Improving fuel efficiency (40%) Additionally, the report shows fleets face more knock-on effects from unforeseen disruptions. These include: Vehicle upkeep expenses: Vehicle upkeep rose by 3% from January to February 2026, and has remained the top priority while harsh weather damaged trucks and forced companies to spend more on maintenance. Labor challenges: February saw a rise in poor working conditions as drivers were subjected to harsher driving conditions and potentially longer hours due to unpredictable delays. Higher insurance costs: A greater number of road accidents have raised insurance prices.
U.S. Cold Storage Establishments and Cold Storage Development
1,800 1,900
350
300
1,700
250
1,600
200
1,500
1,400
150
1,300
100
1,200
50
1,100
0
1,000
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2013
Cold Storage Establishments
Cold Storage Under Construction
Source: Newmark
April 2026 • Inbound Logistics 15
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