N ow that the holiday season—and the resultant post-holiday “returns hangover” period—is behind us, retailers and analysts are reflecting on what transpired to determine lessons and trends for the 2024 holiday season. One consensus is clear: The holiday selling season is getting longer. In 2023, consumers spent $109.3 billion online between November 1 and Cyber Monday on November 27—a 7.3% increase from 2022, Adobe Analytics reports. Spending on Cyber Monday itself spiked as well, jumping 9.6% to $12.4 billion, according to the report. Why the early start? Rather than forking over expedited shipping fees or risking out-of-stock issues, “consumers started their shopping with Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or even earlier,” says Ann Marie Jonkman, senior director, global industry strategy for logistics services with Blue Yonder. The longer season isn’t the only important takeaway from the most recent holiday sales period. Here’s a look at some of the other trends:
Run AMZ, which offers services for companies selling on Amazon. Amazon also imposed several new fees on its sellers, such as a “low inventory fee,” intended to minimize out-of- stock situations. Reverse logistics and cybersecurity are critical functions. Retailers anticipated customers returning approximately $148 billion in merchandise for the 2023 holiday season, equating to a return rate of 15.4%, finds a National Retail Federation and Appriss Retailer report. Of this amount, nearly $25 billion in fraudulent returns was expected. Supply chain organizations that master reverse logistics and can head off fraud can gain a competitive edge. Consumers remain interested in sustainability. Even during the holidays, a growing number of consumers consider the sustainability and environmental impact of the goods they purchase, says Satyendra Pal, global supply chain lead at digital consultancy Publicis Sapient. That’s especially true for younger consumers. Companies seeking to make the most of the 2024 holiday season would do well to remember this. MOVING FORWARD With these takeaways in mind, how can shippers, carriers, and logistics providers prepare for a strong and smooth holiday 2024 season? Here are 11 actions to take.
Retail Federation ( see chart ). Social commerce—in which the shopping experience occurs on social media sites such as Facebook and Instagram—more than doubled between 2020 and 2023, hitting $56.2 billion, or about 4.7% of total retail sales, according to McKinsey. Consumers are continuing in-store shopping as well, says Tom Wicky, co-founder and chief executive officer with MyFBAPrep, which provides logistics and other services to ecommerce retailers. Retailers and their suppliers need to invest in all the channels their customers are using. Disruptions are likely to continue. The supply chain upheavals that have occurred over the past few years will continue to impact holiday preparations for the 2024 peak season. “We are living in a ‘not if, but when’ time,” says Brian Bourke, global chief commercial officer with SEKO Logistics. For instance, the targeting of merchant ships in the Red Sea, as well as the drought at the Panama Canal, which is prompting authorities to reduce shipping volumes, will potentially impact air and ocean peak seasons all year long. Amazon’s policies evolve. During the 2023 holiday season, Amazon doubled its Amazon Prime Day promotions and sales period from five to 10 days. “I expect that to happen again,” says Todd Phillips, vice president of agency operations with
Continued strength in omnichannel retailing. Online and other non-store sales such as social commerce helped drive overall holiday sales growth in 2023, which jumped 8.2% to $276.8 billion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, reported by the National Historical holiday sales (in billions)
Core retail sales during the 2023 holiday season grew 3.8% over 2022 to a record $964.4 billion, despite continued inflation and high interest rates. Sales for the full year grew 3.6% over 2022 to a record $5.13 trillion.
3.8%
5.4%
12.7%
9.1%
3.8%
5.0% 1.7%
3.0%
4.8% 2.8%
2.6% 2.7%
2.7% -4.7% 0.2% 5.2% 4.6%
6.2% 3.2%
6.8%
5.1%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: National Retail Federation (NRF) and U.S. Census. Non-seasonally adjusted retail sales. NRF holiday spending is defined as the months November and December. NRF's calculation of retail sales excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.
March 2024 • Inbound Logistics 31
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