TAKEAWAYS
SHIPMENT VOLUMES AND PEAK SEASON: WHAT TO EXPECT Facing a complex international scenario of inflationary pressure and high interest rates, there is a ton of speculation around the eects of the 2023 peak season, with global stocks signaling caution and reflecting a slower pace of replenishment. The cycle of shipments and restocking for 2023 will be very similar to 2022, when the peak season did not increase the respective volumes, experts predict. “It is expected that the rising interest rates around the world, except in Japan, will make inventory replenishment and shipping less necessary,” says Mario Veraldo, CEO MTM Logix, a logistics company. “However, unlike 2022, when rates were reduced during the high season, there is an expectation that rates will have a small increase this year.”
Veraldo attributes this recovery to global increases in specific product categories, reflecting a growing relationship in product categories in dierent geographical regions. “These trends provide insights into current market dynamics, highlighting the importance of adaptability and strategic planning in a complex global market environment,” he notes. “The main challenge lies in the replenishment process in many sectors, which generally involves little data and relies heavily on intuitive ‘gut feelings’. This approach contributed to the whip eects experienced during the pandemic.” The order book for container ships is at its highest ever, reflecting the restructuring of supply and demand in the sector. This aligns with the trends in global inventory figures, interest rates, and specific product category increases, all of which are influencing the current freight rate dynamics. These trends suggest a scenario in which, unless the world economy grows and the movement of goods increases, freight rates could fall below pre-pandemic levels. This could lead to a scenario of prolonged deflation, Veraldo notes.
September 2023 • Inbound Logistics 21
SALES & LEASING TERMINAL TRACTORS & TRAILERS
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