TAKEAWAYS
SUMMER SHIPPING FACES HEADWINDS Global Manufacturing PMI 2024 vs 2025
Though the number of “out-of-office” email responses ticks up throughout the summer as vacations proliferate, the global supply chain is still hard at work. Current economic indicators, as reported in Dimerco’s August Asia Pacific Freight Report —based on data through June 2025—illustrate how tariffs, inflation, and other geopolitical events are playing out across logistics networks this season: Manufacturing rebounds slightly, but uncertainty lingers. Global manufacturing picked up slightly in June, with production rising at the fastest pace in three months. The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) hit 50.3 in June, compared with a PMI of 49.6 in May. ( See graph, left .) This was mainly due to U.S. companies rushing orders before the new tariffs took effect on July 9. However, overall growth is still slower than before the pandemic, and businesses remain cautious because of ongoing trade tensions and global uncertainties, finds the report. U.S. retail sales slip as consumers turn cautious. U.S. retail sales fell in June for the first time since February, with most categories down except digital products—hinting that shoppers are cautious amid tariff concerns and unclear policies. Many companies have already frontloaded inventories, which may dampen export demand. While the economy stays stable, trade uncertainty continues to affect consumer behavior and global shipping for the rest of 2025. Other logistics “wild cards” noted in the report include the potential impact on air freight stability from summer monsoon season in much of Asia; predicted ongoing ocean freight disruption due to tariff unpredictability; and the possibility that Middle East tensions will reignite problematic sailings in the Red Sea.
51.5 51.0 50.5 50.1 50.0 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5
50.9 50.9
50.6 50.6
50.0
50.3 50.3
50.3 49.8
50.3
49.7
49.6
49.6
49.5
49.4
48.8
2024
2025
Source: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
RURAL AMERICA’S MANUFACTURING MOMENT A new McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility report forecasts a transformative decade for rural America, with $1 trillion in announced advanced manufacturing investments—63% of it within commuting distance of rural communities. Driven by reshoring, supply chain resilience, and technological change, this wave of capital is poised to create high-quality jobs and inject an estimated $34 billion annually into rural wages. • Helping schools deliver core literacy, math, and critical thinking skills. • Co-designing STEM and technical curricula. • Creating work-based learning opportunities. Notably, eight in 10 rural students want such career-connected learning, but fewer than half report access. McKinsey’s key takeaway? Companies that act now to integrate workforce development into their expansion plans stand to secure a competitive talent advantage, reduce attrition, and deepen their community impact.
For supply chain and manufacturing leaders, the opportunity is clear but conditional: by 2030, the United States could face a 2.1 million worker shortfall in manufacturing, including a 58% gap in semiconductor roles. Rural K-12 schools—particularly in what McKinsey deems “manufacturing workshop” and “middle America” archetypes— will be essential partners in building the talent pipeline.
Nearly two-thirds of the $1 trillion in announced advanced-manufacturing investments will support facilities within commuting distance of rural America. Share of strategic-sector manufacturing investment* announcements by geography, 2021-24, % of total
Stronger school-industry collaboration could deliver $20 billion annually in productivity and retention gains, the report estimates. Strategies include expanding career and technical education, dual-enrollment, youth apprenticeships, and industry-driven career academies. Existing programs have shown that early, sustained engagement with students—aligned to local industry needs—can produce credentialed, job-ready graduates. The report urges executives to move beyond sporadic outreach toward sustained, multi-year engagement through actions including:
100
37
Commuting distance from community
28
63
8
4
23
In rural community
≤5 miles
5-10 miles
10-15 miles
Within commuting distance
>15 miles
Total
*Inclusive of new facility construction, facility expansion, and facility modernization. The Brookings Institution defines strategic manufacturing sectors as clean technology, semiconductors and electronics, biomanufacturing, and other advanced industries (eg, heavy industry, chemicals and materials, steel, aluminum). Source: AAA Foundation; Brookings Institution; US Census Bureau; White House; McKinsey analysis
August 2025 • Inbound Logistics 15
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