TAKEAWAYS
LOGISTICS FORGED IN DISRUPTION
Structural volatility, dynamic tariff shifts, and escalating geopolitical disruptions aren’t going away anytime soon. That’s the consensus from the recently released 2026 State of Logistics: Forged in Disruption report. Organizations relying on aggregate metrics or “managing to averages” face severe strategic liabilities in an increasingly bifurcated market, warns the annual study produced by Kearney in collaboration with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and Penske Logistics. This year’s report arrives at an inflection point, as the authors note that “forces reshaping logistics are hardening into structural features of the operating environment rather than conditions to manage through.” Here are some key trends currently impacting the global supply chain, as outlined in the report. Fuel-price spikes: Ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea and Middle East shipping lanes have pushed global oil prices up nearly 60% since the end of 2025. This comes on the heels of previous crises ( see chart, below ) and is driving up fuel surcharges and insurance costs for everyone. Smart software wins: The supply chain advantage has shifted to companies with smart software. The top delivery platforms now check 1,100 different
variables (such as traffic, weather, and grid power) for every single shipment to find the best route. Non-stop tariff changes: Governments around the world changed tariff rules an average of every 1.5 weeks over the past year. This forced companies to frantically rush shipments into warehouses early to beat deadlines. Air cargo split: Air freight looks healthy on paper, but only in certain places. Air shipping from Asia to Europe jumped 10.3%, while shipments from Asia to North America actually dropped 0.8%. Green costs money: Environmental rules are hitting the bottom line. For the first time, carbon taxes are appearing as a line-item expense on shipping bills for routes connected to Europe. Meanwhile, bad weather events caused a massive $145 billion in insured losses this past year. Many companies are suffering from “network drift”—meaning they are making so many quick, reactive changes to dodge the daily chaos that their overall shipping strategy has completely unraveled, the report notes. To survive, the best companies are throwing out the old rulebook. Instead of locking in shipping rates with big, once-a-year contracts, they are using live data and AI to continuously buy freight space on the fly.
10 YEARS OF ENERGY SHOCKS
A decade of successive crises has kept global energy markets in a state of persistent volatility, causing supply chain disruptions and driving up fuel surcharges.
2016-2026, S&P GSCI Energy Index
500
400
Conflict in Ukraine
Conflict in Iran
300
200
COVID-19 pandemic
100
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
Source: S&P GSCI Energy Index; Kearney analysis
28 Inbound Logistics • July 2026
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